INVESTMENT

Over-confident investors underestimate thinning pipeline, bank warns

Long-only investors put faith in the mining sector partly based on expectations of growth in battery metals - but the thin project pipeline for copper may have been overlooked, research by Credit Suisse has found.

Waiting for EVs to ride to the rescue of copper tomorrow may be to underestimate risk today, the bank warned

Waiting for EVs to ride to the rescue of copper tomorrow may be to underestimate risk today, the bank warned

While the bank warned that investors were too focused on near-term capital expenditure trends, it also suggested investors' hopes for a turnaround in copper may also be in danger of underestimating near-term problems facing the red metal. 

Capital market consensus anticipate a copper deficit in five years' time, as demand for electric vehicles and other copper-related equipment takes off. But Credit Suisse warned the lack of new project approvals should not be overlooked. 

Boards of mining companies were being more reluctant to approve new big projects with a lack of near-term benefits, and a copper market surplus is expected in the next four years, as new projects sanctioned in the last two years will contribute 10% of global production once fully ramped up, the bank noted. 

"In 2017-19, copper has seen a wave of project approvals amounting to 2.7 million tonnes, much of which has already translated into equipment orders," the bank said in a note.

"We see evidence of the total value of new capex approved for projects having fallen by 50% [in the 12 months to September 2019] and expect this to suppress equipment orders in H219 and 2020. In contrast, the outlook for gold remains more positive."

Companies selling mining equipment to gold mines might benefit more than those servicing copper, the bank suggested, adding that its prferred choices were Sandvik and Epiroc, over Metso and FLSmidth (which it believes are over-valued). 

"The thinner project pipeline in copper and iron ore is a downside risk to 2020 growth in mining orders," the bank said. "[Whereas] depletion and mine closures [in gold] are putting pressure on supply and stimulating the need for more new projects and capex."

Earlier in September, BMO Capital Markets questioned bullish copper outlook projections by Peru energy and mines minister Francisco Ismodes, and argued the world's second biggest producer will struggle to meet its target.

However, the outlook for copper projects need not necessarily be entirely gloomy. In October, Mining Journal explored how juniors are finding other ways of raising finance, including Kincora Copper's Mongolia project which used platform-based finance as part of its most recent raising. 

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the farming sector, brought to you by the Kondinin team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the farming sector, brought to you by the Kondinin team.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Investor Sentiment Report 2024

Survey revealing the plans, priorities, and preferences of 120+ mining investors and their expectations for the sector in 2024.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Mining Equities Report 2023

Access an exclusive, inside look on the quarterly mining IPOs and secondary raisings data and mining equities performance tables with an annual Stock Exchange Comparisons supplement.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence World Risk Report 2023 (feat. MineHutte ratings)

A detailed analysis of mining investment risks across 121 jurisdictions globally, built on 11 ‘hard risk’ metrics and an industrywide survey.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Global Leadership Report 2023: Social licence

Gain insights into social licence trends and best practices from interviews with 20+ top mining company executives and an industrywide survey.